How to Bet on Politics
There has been a dramatic rise in political betting in recent years as punters look for an alternative to sports. The 2015 General Election proved to be a huge event, as more than £100 million was estimated to have been wagered in the UK, and there are a steady stream of major stories to ensure that political betting remains big business all the time rather than just once every four years. Whether you’re interested in the issue of Scottish independence, the future leader of the Labour party or the US presidential campaign, there are always markets for customers to explore.
Where to Bet on Politics
Common Bets
When eagerly-awaited events such as general elections come around, the most common bets are on which party will get the most seats, whether anyone will have an overall majority, what type of government will be formed and who will end up as Prime Minister. It is also possible to bet on the total number of seats a party will get or the percentage of the vote they will receive.
There are also a lot of long-term bets to be made in politics, from the next leader of different parties, to the date that the Prime Minister will stand down, or whether there will be another Scottish independence referendum before 2021.
Most bookmakers also offer markets on a wide range of events from various parts of the world, including high-profile contests such as the next president of the USA and battles for power in other countries such as France or Denmark. It is also possible to bet on economic matters like whether the Euro currency will still exist in 2020 or which country will be the next to leave the Eurozone.
Tips and Strategy
As with sports betting, the most successful political bettors will be those who have the greatest level of understanding about the subject. For this reason, it is best to stick to specific topics where your knowledge is strongest - for example, betting on the Spanish election if you have spent a significant amount of time in the country or predicting who will be the next MP in your local constituency as you have first-hand knowledge of their campaigns.
Another decent option in politics is to back an outcome which has some impetus behind it, as the odds begin to come in from a long starting price. For example, Jeremy Corbyn was a 33/1 outsider to succeed Ed Miliband as Labour leader after the 2015 General Election, but ended up gaining almost 60% of the vote. Likewise, the bets that Sir Clement Freud had on himself in a 1973 by-election helped to build a sense of momentum which may have ultimately contributed to his surprise win.